Can the Thai economy handle a year of mourning?

BANGKOK -- The abnormally quiet weekend at bars, cinemas and golf courses following the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej on Oct. 13 hints at hard times for the recovering Thai economy.

Many Thais are putting off weddings, vacations and other "joyful events" as the country begins a one-year period of mourning. This is in addition to a 30-day ban on "entertainment" that has forced infamous bar districts, like Bangkok's Soi Cowboy, to pull down their shutters out of respect for the late king.

Even after the entertainment ban is lifted, it is hard to say how quickly the nation's mood will bounce back.

Major theater chain SF Cinema saw the number of customers drop 40% from normal weekends during Oct. 15-16, while Siam Piwat, which operates shopping malls such as Bangkok's Siam Paragon, says people are refraining from luxury purchases.

The only conspicuous increase in demand is for black clothing, as ordinary citizens have been asked to dress in mourning for 30 days. The dress-code period for civil servants is a full year.

Unfortunate timing

The somber mood is expected to affect the country's vital tourism industry just as it enters its peak season.

Many events that draw visitors from around the world will be canceled such as the monthly Full Moon Party on the island of Phangan. The annual lantern floating festival in the northern province of Chiang Mai, scheduled for November, was also called off at one point but later reinstated. The event will take place but without "entertainment activities."

Such large-scale cancellations have not been seen in recent years, and although Thailand's tourism industry has proven surprisingly resilient -- weathering the 2014 military coup and fatal blasts, including in central Bangkok in 2015 -- this time could be different.

Thailand's gross domestic product expanded 2.8% last year, compared with near-flat growth of 0.8% the year before. A large part of that rise came from tourism, which accounts for at least 10% of the economy. The industry was heading for a record year in 2016, with the number of foreign tourists set to increase by 11% to 33 million and revenue to reach 2.58 trillion baht ($73.3 billion), up 17% year on year.


BBC.